Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B5 0xb5b1…5b57 sports 154 markets active 8h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-0%) realized −$158 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate51%77W / 75L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$74
sports 30% −$23
other 5% −$15
crypto 1% −$103
world 0% +$3
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.2% -16.9% 33% 22% -10.9%
≤30d 40 -2.6% -11.8% 32% 22% -9.8%
≤90d 47 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 26% -9.7%
all 152 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 23% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 23% -9.8%
10% -24.9% 21% -18.5%
15% -32.2% 20% -26.3%
20% -38.8% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses77 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage652d
Avg bet$432
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 61¢ 62¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $23 +$21 +90%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $22 +$27 +119%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $13 −$1 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina Jun 12 $10 +$22 +213%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $17 +$15 +90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 +$10 +60%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,711 −$7 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $667 −$18 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,583 −$24 -1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$3 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $71 −$12 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $7,669 −$5 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 22 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,459 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $7,541 −$13 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,619 −$4 -0%
Istanbul: Daniel Michalski vs Benjamin Hassan May 22 $13 +$10 +79%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $787 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,460 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $4,721 +$11 +0%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi May 21 $11 +$11 +101%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Andrea May 20 $18 +$27 +146%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) May 05 $12 $0 +3%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 05 $64 $0 +0%
Sharks vs. Sabres Apr 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Ducks vs. Jets Apr 08 $16 +$20 +127%
Oilers vs. Avalanche Apr 08 $18 +$28 +157%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $61 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 07 $6 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 07 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 52¢ $23 8h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 54¢ $20 8h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 56¢ $20 8h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $22 33h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 59¢ $23 33h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 47¢ $19 33h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $22 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 61¢ $25 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 50¢ $12 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 52¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $11 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $23 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $51 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $42 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $2,600 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $2,711 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 52¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 62¢ $17 4d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $649 4d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $667 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $796 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $13 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY 31¢ $10 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.59 · official $45.59 (match) · 522 history records