Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B5 0xb5b2…c4a7 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$158
other 13% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +96.8% +78.1% 50% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 12 +96.8% +78.1% 50% 50% -5.4%
≤90d 12 +96.8% +78.1% 50% 50% -5.4%
all 20 +34.3% +21.5% 40% 30% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 30% -18.9%
10% +9.9% 30% -26.7%
15% -0.8% 30% -33.8%
20% -10.5% 30% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +127% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$33 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage205d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $72 −$69 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$26 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$49 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$70 +235%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$39 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $67 +$36 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$92 +1116%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $60 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11AM ET Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Feb 03 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2AM ET Jan 06 $14 −$10 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 06 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 06 $86 −$16 -19%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 06 $67 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $8 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $7 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $20 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $23 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $24 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $24 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records