Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5b3…0d56 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$6
sports 20% −$6
other 18% −$5
economics 7% $0
politics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.2% -13.4% 33% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 24 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 70 -2.9% -12.1% 36% 3% -9.8%
all 84 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 4% -10.0%
10% -25.3% 1% -18.6%
15% -32.6% 1% -26.5%
20% -39.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage522d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$8 -29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $42 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $105 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $13 +$2 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $3 −$1 -33%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 11 $49 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 09 $3 $0 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $13 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $13 21h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records