Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb5b6…c484 crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$158 (+9%) realized +$157 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%97W / 123L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$55
14 days+$61
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$129
crypto 9% −$36
other 6% +$39
world 2% −$2
politics 1% −$1
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +13.2% +2.4% 54% 54% +10.1%
≤30d 99 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 44% +1.5%
≤90d 220 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 40% -0.9%
all 220 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 40% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 40% -0.9%
10% -33.2% 33% -10.4%
15% -39.6% 29% -19.1%
20% -45.5% 23% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses97 / 123
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)220 / 229
History coverage61d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$12 +294%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $31 −$22 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$37 +91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +104%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +277%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$6 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$6 +124%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) Jun 08 $5 +$7 +137%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$7 +139%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 56m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 36¢ $10 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $15 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 9¢ $9 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 26¢ $5 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 28¢ $26 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $5 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $14 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 49¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 24¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 74¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 64¢ $10 4d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY Vitality 63¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 61¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.37 · official $10.37 (match) · 518 history records