Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5b9…e4c9 crypto 450 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate77%347W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 72% -11.4%
≤30d 432 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 72% -11.4%
≤90d 445 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 71% -14.6%
all 449 +0.5% -9.1% 77% 70% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 70% -14.9%
10% -17.8% 30% -23.0%
15% -25.7% 14% -30.4%
20% -33.0% 3% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses347 / 102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)449 / 450
History coverage90d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 91¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $1.63 · 873 history records