Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5ba…06b3 sports 575 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,082 (-7%) realized −$5,971 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%234W / 337L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$1,236est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$14,325
other 1% −$391
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -8.8% -17.5% 37% 37% -23.3%
≤30d 258 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 38% -27.5%
≤90d 571 -20.2% -27.8% 41% 41% -26.1%
all 571 -20.2% -27.8% 41% 41% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 41% -26.1%
10% -34.7% 39% -33.2%
15% -41.0% 35% -39.6%
20% -46.8% 30% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$122 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$5,971
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses234 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,236
Open positions4
Markets (closed)571 / 575
History coverage83d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 18¢ 10¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-48%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 49¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 41¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$31 +303%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $174 −$171 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $135 −$133 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $89 +$150 +169%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $49 +$47 +96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $140 −$138 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $18 +$70 +379%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $54 +$60 +111%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $233 −$229 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $165 +$62 +38%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $289 −$215 -74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $144 −$103 -72%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $379 −$158 -42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $151 +$54 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $85 +$130 +152%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $153 +$42 +28%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $82 +$71 +88%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $253 −$200 -79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $188 −$120 -64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $80 +$102 +127%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $31 +$201 +650%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $49 +$73 +149%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $45 −$44 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $252 −$247 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $431 +$368 +85%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $579 −$136 -24%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $335 +$245 +73%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $163 −$160 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $77 −$14 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $319 −$313 -98%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $423 −$72 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 18¢ $20 57m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 19¢ $20 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $41 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 24¢ $10 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $8 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 41¢ $20 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 41¢ $46 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 44¢ $47 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 16¢ $138 22h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 49¢ $174 23h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 18¢ $87 23h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 41¢ $60 27h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 27h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $55 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $53 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $135 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $238 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $33 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $55 34h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $100 35h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 27¢ $27 47h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 15¢ $21 47h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $95 2d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL FaZe Vegas 99¢ $95 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $140 2d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 50¢ $49 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 74¢ $88 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $114 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.83 · official $20.83 (match) · 1225 history records