Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B5 0xb5bd…864d crypto 22 markets active 3d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-1%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% −$1
other 24% +$5
sports 14% −$78
tech 13% −$7
world 13% +$1
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 8% -10.6%
all 22 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 27% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 27% -10.6%
10% -17.3% 27% -19.1%
15% -25.3% 27% -26.9%
20% -32.6% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$794) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage120d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 20 $854 −$7 -1%
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? Mar 20 $29 −$3 -11%
Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Mar 20 $19 +$7 +36%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Mar 20 $825 +$1 +0%
Will Nottm Forest finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Mar 20 $893 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22? Mar 20 $749 +$2 +0%
Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Mar 20 $821 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on March 22? Mar 20 $794 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or higher on March 23? Mar 20 $799 −$4 -0%
Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri Mar 20 $747 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 5AM ET Mar 02 $12 +$12 +100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 1AM ET Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 9AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$10 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4AM ET Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 8AM ET Feb 27 $14 +$14 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 3AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 8AM ET Feb 25 $5 +$5 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9PM ET Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 1AM ET Feb 15 $6 +$6 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $9 25d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $9 25d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 41d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 41d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $76 88d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 99¢ $840 88d
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? SELL Yes $26 88d
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? BUY Yes $29 88d
Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO SELL Yes $26 88d
Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY Yes $19 88d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 99¢ $8 88d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 100¢ $854 88d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election SELL No 99¢ $803 88d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election SELL No 99¢ $22 88d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election BUY No 99¢ $825 88d
Will Nottm Forest finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier SELL No 99¢ $86 88d
Will Nottm Forest finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier SELL No 99¢ $805 88d
Will Nottm Forest finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier BUY No 99¢ $893 88d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22? SELL No 100¢ $750 88d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22? BUY No 99¢ $749 88d
Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $822 89d
Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $821 89d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on March 22? SELL No 100¢ $796 89d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $794 89d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or higher on March 23? SELL No 99¢ $795 89d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or higher on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $799 89d
Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri SELL No 99¢ $748 89d
Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri BUY No 99¢ $747 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records