Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B5 0xb5bf…5c1f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$157 · open +$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$412
7 days+$655
14 days+$155
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$199
sports 14% +$225
crypto 6% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+72.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +185.8% +158.5% 67% 67% +66.5%
≤30d 7 +144.9% +121.6% 57% 57% +1.4%
≤90d 7 +144.9% +121.6% 57% 57% +1.4%
all 9 +90.5% +72.4% 44% 44% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.4% 44% -11.0%
10% +55.9% 44% -19.5%
15% +40.8% 44% -27.3%
20% +27.0% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$201 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage111d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 100¢ $99 $234 +$136 (+138%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $99 +$412 +414%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $227 −$225 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$403 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $79 −$79 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $100 1h
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $99 5h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals AND Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY 10¢ $20 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $227 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $102 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 90d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY FURIA 43¢ $99 106d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY PARIVISION 67¢ $79 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.33 · official $265.75 (match) · 106 history records