Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb5c0…2ff2 politics 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%5W / 62L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$17
other 2% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 67 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses5 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage631d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $54 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bryce Harper win the 2025 NL MVP? Nov 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Frank LaRose be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Dec 19 $0 $0 -2%
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 19 $0 $0 -0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 1-3 years in gun case? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign in November? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Red Bulls win the 2024 MLS Cup? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
ETHBTC above 0.035 on Nov 30? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win the NFC South? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $0 $0 -3%
Will Los Angeles FC win the MLS Cup? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will NC State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for HHS Secretary? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $0 $0 -0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 11 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 12h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $53 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 10d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $54 38d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 39d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 48d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 49d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 49d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $57 67d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $26 67d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $31 67d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 93d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 93d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 96d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 97d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 99d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 99d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 106d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 107d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 112d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 114d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 147d
Will Bryce Harper win the 2025 NL MVP? BUY No 100¢ $54 247d
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? SELL No 98¢ $0 549d
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? BUY No 98¢ $0 549d
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? SELL No 99¢ $0 549d
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? BUY No 100¢ $0 549d
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? SELL No 100¢ $1 549d
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? BUY No 100¢ $1 549d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records