Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5c6…30b5 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$30
other 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -23.5% -30.8% 39% 37% -8.4%
≤30d 54 -23.5% -30.8% 39% 37% -8.4%
≤90d 54 -23.5% -30.8% 39% 37% -8.4%
all 54 -23.5% -30.8% 39% 37% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 37% -8.4%
10% -37.4% 30% -17.2%
15% -43.4% 26% -25.2%
20% -49.0% 20% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 39¢ 86¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+122%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner JiJieHao 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$3 -74%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$3 +183%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $21 −$19 -90%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $42 −$14 -34%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$3 +150%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $25 −$11 -44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$13 -50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $45 −$39 -86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $27 +$34 +124%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$12 +116%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$5 +77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$9 +55%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$7 +216%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $10 22m
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner BUY JiJieHao 50¢ $1 46m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 20¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 52¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $7 26h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 59¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 44¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 41¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 21¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 10¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 10¢ $0 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 41¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 13¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 39¢ $4 28h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 9¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 15¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 18¢ $4 46h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 5¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 18¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 67¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 26¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 88¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 49¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 35¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 65¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.18 · official $20.00 · 159 history records