Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb5c7…3976 other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$319 (-4%) realized −$319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$177
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$158
crypto 5% −$270
politics 2% −$57
sports 2% +$76
economics 0% −$25
weather 0% −$3
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +103.6% +84.2% 50% 44% -15.5%
≤30d 16 +103.6% +84.2% 50% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 16 +103.6% +84.2% 50% 44% -15.5%
all 81 +7.9% -2.4% 41% 31% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 31% -11.6%
10% -11.7% 21% -20.1%
15% -20.3% 19% -27.8%
20% -28.1% 14% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 48
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage146d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$13 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $299 −$295 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 −$70 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $636 +$21 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $120 −$26 -21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$50 -49%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$100 +1750%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 +$42 +14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$108 +53%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $104 −$6 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 16 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 16 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 16 $99 −$74 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 16 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 16 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 16 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $200 −$21 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $109 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $71 −$15 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $57 −$31 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 15 $52 −$35 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 15 $57 −$21 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 14 $54 −$10 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $408 +$107 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $286 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $177 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $170 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $263 −$19 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $213 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $593 −$224 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $120 +$60 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $499 +$80 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $471 +$51 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $145 +$34 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $54 +$78 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $41 +$25 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 04 $130 −$21 -16%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 03 $10 −$8 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $84 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $67 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $299 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $340 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $239 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 55¢ $317 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $372 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $52 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $28 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $106 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $343 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 318 history records