Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B5 0xb5c8…76a5 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+3%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$16
world 25% −$6
sports 24% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 4 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 4 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 0% -7.4%
all 4 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 0% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 0% -7.4%
10% -16.2% 0% -16.3%
15% -24.3% 0% -24.4%
20% -31.8% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$6 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage10d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 19 $314 −$6 -2%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 19 $321 −$7 -2%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 10 $321 +$23 +7%
Spread: India (-1.5) Jun 09 $302 +$19 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $308 9m
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $314 1h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL No 90¢ $314 1h
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY No 92¢ $321 2h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 93¢ $321 9d
Spread: India (-1.5) BUY Tajikistan 94¢ $302 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records