Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb5cd…c85e world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$3
other 12% +$4
politics 11% +$1
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.8% -3.4% 33% 11% -9.0%
≤30d 19 +3.6% -6.3% 37% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 19 +3.6% -6.3% 37% 5% -9.0%
all 47 +2.6% -7.2% 49% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 6% -8.7%
10% -16.1% 6% -17.4%
15% -24.2% 2% -25.4%
20% -31.6% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage456d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $55 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $19 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $56 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Dec 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the Patriots draft Will Campbell? Apr 29 $13 +$4 +28%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 27 $13 $0 -2%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $3 $0 -12%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $0 $0 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $11 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $43 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $43 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.73 · official $2.89 (match) · 164 history records