Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5cd…6055 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$59 (+2%) realized +$65 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 36L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$56
world 1% −$4
weather 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 19% -6.6%
≤30d 55 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 18% -6.6%
≤90d 55 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 18% -6.6%
all 55 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 18% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 18% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 11% -15.6%
15% -46.3% 11% -23.7%
20% -51.6% 7% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$642
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)55 / 73
History coverage7d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 94¢ 93¢ $148 $146 −$2 (-2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 66¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $11 $14 +$4 (+34%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $365 +$20 +6%
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $61 −$4 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $52 +$37 +70%
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $100 −$5 -5%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 26 $1 +$4 +397%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $384 +$56 +14%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 26 $1 $0 -26%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $5 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$12 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$14 +39%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $11 −$7 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $50 47m
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $50 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $50 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $41 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $100 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $30 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $100 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $107 1h
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 1h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 2h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 2h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 2h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 2h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $52 7h
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $52 7h
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 10h
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 10h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 10h
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $100 11h
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $100 11h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 21h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 21h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 21h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 21h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $278 23h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $641.97 · official $642.67 (match) · 181 history records