Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb5d8…af42 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$57 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$58
world 22% $0
tech 19% +$39
politics 12% $0
crypto 8% −$4
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 40% -26.2%
≤30d 5 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 40% -26.2%
≤90d 5 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 40% -26.2%
all 5 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 40% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 40% -26.2%
10% -15.5% 20% -33.2%
15% -23.7% 20% -39.7%
20% -31.2% 0% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$38 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$905
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)5 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 68¢ 67¢ $188 $186 −$3 (-2%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 57¢ 74¢ $132 $169 +$37 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 69¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 76¢ $46 $51 +$5 (+11%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 73¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 84¢ 89¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 74¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 74¢ 74¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? No 66¢ 66¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $26 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? No 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $26 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 27 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $31 +$5 +17%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $32 +$12 +36%
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Jun 23 $193 −$74 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? BUY No 66¢ $27 1h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $27 1h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $28 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $32 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $36 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 3h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $24 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $27 2d
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e BUY No 82¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $44 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $28 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 3d
Weed rescheduled by December 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $104 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 3d
Weed rescheduled by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 3d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $32 3d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $34 3d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 3d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $50 3d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 57¢ $135 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $96 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $47 3d
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY No 68¢ $188 3d
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $193 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.64 · official $904.69 (match) · 31 history records