Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb5d9…8836 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% $0
politics 35% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage95d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $80 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $80 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 09 $81 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $80 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 5d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $80 19d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $80 19d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $80 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $80 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 40d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 40d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $80 43d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 44d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 44d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $80 45d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 46d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 47d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 53d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $80 54d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $81 70d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $81 70d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $81 74d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $81 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $81 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $55 80d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $27 80d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 85d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 86d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $16 88d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $16 89d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records