Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb5db…9bdd crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%39W / 8L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$1
other 29% $0
politics 16% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 47 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses39 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage506d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Feb 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 13 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 14 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 123d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 123d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 149d
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 151d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 183d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 212d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $19 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 272d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $5 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 303d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $22 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 363d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $3 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 396d
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? BUY No 99¢ $6 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.91 · official $36.91 (match) · 105 history records