Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb5e1…ab72 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$414 (-38%) realized −$411 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$19
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$229
world 12% −$48
crypto 8% −$78
other 8% −$25
finance 5% −$12
weather 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.4% +1.7% 25% 25% +19.4%
≤30d 5 -10.1% -18.6% 20% 20% -34.5%
≤90d 5 -10.1% -18.6% 20% 20% -34.5%
all 26 -32.4% -38.8% 31% 31% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 31% -45.8%
10% -44.7% 23% -51.0%
15% -50.0% 15% -55.7%
20% -54.9% 15% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$31 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$411
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage139d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Panthers vs. Islanders Mar 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $55 +$15 +28%
Duke Blue Devils vs. LSU Tigers (W) Mar 28 $65 −$65 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 28 $29 +$6 +22%
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) Mar 28 $35 +$32 +92%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $50 +$27 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $30 −$20 -66%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Mar 27 $30 +$9 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $15 −$12 -80%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 27 $63 −$63 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 27 $100 −$35 -35%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Grou Mar 27 $30 +$6 +18%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 27 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 25 $50 −$12 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 25 $20 −$1 -4%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026? Mar 25 $35 −$27 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $52 47h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $51 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 19¢ $10 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY $5 14d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 14d
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 14d
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 14d
Bulls vs. Grizzlies BUY Bulls 64¢ $70 91d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $70 91d
Panthers vs. Islanders BUY Panthers 73¢ $59 92d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $55 92d
Duke Blue Devils vs. LSU Tigers (W) BUY LSU Tigers 71¢ $65 92d
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines SELL Michigan Wolverines 100¢ $36 92d
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) SELL Celtics 100¢ $67 92d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils SELL Duke Blue Devils 100¢ $77 92d
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 82¢ $29 92d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Duke Blue Devils 65¢ $50 92d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 92d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 92d
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag SELL G2 Minnesota 100¢ $39 92d
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) BUY Celtics 52¢ $35 93d
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY G2 Minnesota 77¢ $30 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes $3 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $65 93d
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Grou SELL UNO MILLE 100¢ $36 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.93 · official $21.93 (match) · 63 history records