Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B5 0xb5e3…bb35 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$65 (-13%) realized −$54 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%2W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+7.9%	-2.3%	25%	25%	+33.7%
≤30d	8	+7.9%	-2.3%	25%	25%	+33.7%
≤90d	8	+7.9%	-2.3%	25%	25%	+33.7%
all	8	+7.9%	-2.3%	25%	25%	+33.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.3%	25%	+33.7%
10%	-11.7%	25%	+20.9%
15%	-20.2%	25%	+9.2%
20%	-28.0%	25%	-1.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$145 vs −$59 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized−$54

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses2 / 6

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage6d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	28¢	20¢	$36	$25	−$11 (-30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$19	+$18	+97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$10	−$1	-8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$61	−$42	-68%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$277	−$261	-94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$61	+$272	+442%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$33	−$33	-100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$37	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	50¢	$19	4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	26¢	$9	4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	27¢	$10	4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	10¢	$7	7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	13¢	$13	7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	35¢	$61	8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	1¢	$9	8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$277	15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$61	6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$33	6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.05 · official $28.90 · 18 history records