Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb5e3…c2c0 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$7
sports 20% −$46
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -22.9% -30.3% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 8 -23.8% -31.1% 25% 0% -11.4%
all 8 -23.8% -31.1% 25% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 0% -11.4%
10% -37.7% 0% -19.8%
15% -43.7% 0% -27.6%
20% -49.2% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage83d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $277 $276 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 02 $466 +$39 +8%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $468 $0 -0%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 25 $93 $0 -0%
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $375 +$4 +1%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 17 $374 $0 +0%
Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-03-28? Mar 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 27 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $278 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 92¢ $466 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $467 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $468 16d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) SELL Rosenborg BK 5¢ $1 23d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) BUY Rosenborg BK 5¢ $24 23d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) BUY Rosenborg BK 5¢ $24 23d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) BUY Rosenborg BK 5¢ $3 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $47 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $46 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $48 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 23d
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC 99¢ $375 61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $374 61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $374 61d
Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 82d
Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 82d
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? SELL No 36¢ $9 82d
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? SELL No 36¢ $9 82d
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? BUY No 36¢ $11 82d
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? BUY No 36¢ $7 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.09 · official $276.24 (match) · 24 history records