trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -15.3% | -23.4% | 0% | 0% | -24.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 44% | 22% | -18.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 50% | 30% | -18.2% |
| all | 13 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 54% | 31% | -18.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.5% | 31% | -18.8% |
| 10% | -21.8% | 8% | -26.6% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 0% | -33.7% |
| 20% | -36.3% | 0% | -40.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $52 | $52 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $36 | $35 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $33 | $33 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 15 | $17 | −$5 | -29% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $47 | −$6 | -12% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 31 | $56 | −$3 | -6% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 31 | $2 | $0 | +17% |
| Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? | May 08 | $2 | +$1 | +30% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | Feb 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +20% |