Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5ea…46c2 sports 80 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%47W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$22
other 36% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 59% -11.9%
≤30d 79 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 59% -11.9%
≤90d 79 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 59% -11.9%
all 79 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 59% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 59% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 58% -20.3%
15% -25.9% 57% -28.0%
20% -33.2% 41% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses47 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 −$45 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +61%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$34 +68%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$7 -66%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$5 -33%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$15 +48%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $5 +$4 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$4 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +68%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$8 -53%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $43 +$21 +50%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $46 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 2d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $17 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 21¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 23¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $45 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 53¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records