Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5eb…22a1 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
politics 22% $0
other 16% +$1
sports 9% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.6% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 43 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage267d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 58¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 -12%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $1 $0 +29%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 05 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%? Oct 02 $9 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $29 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $19 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 41h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $15 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $29 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $7 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $23 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $29 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $27 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $3 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $29 13d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1 200d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.84 · official $29.32 (match) · 151 history records