Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5ee…0304 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$46
sports 25% −$21
politics 10% −$7
economics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage138d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $187 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $587 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $272 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $365 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $646 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $273 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $362 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $562 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $288 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $493 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $438 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $649 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $306 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $295 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $520 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $18 5h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $18 6h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 10h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $15 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 12h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 18h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 19h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 21h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 22h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 27h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 28h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 33h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 34h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 40h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 42h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 45h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 47h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.24 · official $58.24 (match) · 1419 history records