Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb5ef…cf05 world 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$4
sports 14% −$6
other 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 20% 20% -7.5%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 14% 14% -8.0%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 14% 14% -8.0%
all 16 -4.2% -13.3% 44% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 12% -10.3%
10% -21.6% 6% -18.9%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage480d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 21 $5 $0 +4%
Northern Colorado vs. Weber State Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $14 −$1 -10%
Toledo vs. Kent State Mar 03 $12 +$3 +30%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $12 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $23 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $34 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $33 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $33 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 388d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? BUY No 98¢ $2 405d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 419d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $1 433d
Robert Morris vs. Alabama BUY Alabama 96¢ $5 453d
Northern Colorado vs. Weber State BUY Weber State 26¢ $8 470d
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois SELL Bowling Green 47¢ $13 470d
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois BUY Bowling Green 52¢ $14 470d
Toledo vs. Kent State BUY Kent State 77¢ $12 477d
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 88¢ $12 477d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records