Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb5f1…364b other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,462 (+16%) realized +$2,462 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,276per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$332
7 days−$1,168
14 days+$1,880
30 days+$1,880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% +$2,201
other 40% −$396
sports 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 22% -22.2%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 25% +1.6%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 25% +1.6%
all 12 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 25% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 25% +1.6%
10% -18.5% 25% -8.1%
15% -26.4% 17% -17.0%
20% -33.6% 17% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$876 vs −$203 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,462
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,276
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$75 +74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 +$74 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $719 +$7 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $739 −$20 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,076 −$149 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $1,222 −$320 -26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $185 −$8 -4%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 11 $1,643 −$222 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1,322 −$606 -46%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 08 $2,047 −$282 -14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $4,915 +$3,349 +68%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $32 −$19 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $177 55m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $380 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $306 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $726 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $719 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $719 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $739 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $740 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $869 16h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 11¢ $869 16h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 14¢ $9 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 14¢ $1,177 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,186 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,206 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $178 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,029 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $185 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $186 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 17¢ $389 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $392 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $624 7d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 40¢ $625 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $484 7d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 41¢ $488 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 29¢ $617 7d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 43¢ $620 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records