trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -39.9% | -45.6% | 0% | 0% | -36.2% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -54.9% | -59.2% | 20% | 10% | -32.7% |
| all | 23 | -39.2% | -45.0% | 26% | 17% | -37.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -45.0% | 17% | -37.0% |
| 10% | -50.2% | 17% | -43.1% |
| 15% | -55.0% | 17% | -48.6% |
| 20% | -59.5% | 13% | -53.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 74¢ | $6,350 | $6,356 | +$6 (+0%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 60¢ | $3,060 | $3,187 | +$127 (+4%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 76¢ | $2,000 | $2,115 | +$115 (+6%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 53¢ | 50¢ | $989 | $942 | −$47 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Jun 15 | $200 | −$117 | -59% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Jun 15 | $700 | −$148 | -21% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 14 | $1,000 | +$1,256 | +126% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | May 10 | $400 | −$400 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | May 10 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Apr 26 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 26 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | Apr 21 | $260 | −$260 | -100% |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? | Apr 21 | $300 | +$15 | +5% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Apr 21 | $1,129 | −$1,129 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Jan 14 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Jan 14 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Nov 07 | $100 | +$185 | +186% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | Nov 06 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 31 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? | Sep 22 | $100 | +$270 | +270% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? | Sep 03 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? | Sep 03 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? | Sep 03 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? | Sep 03 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? | Aug 26 | $50 | −$32 | -64% |
| Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass? | Aug 24 | $100 | +$47 | +47% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? | Aug 16 | $200 | +$17 | +9% |