Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5f3…e772 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$7
other 9% −$1
finance 4% −$1
sports 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.1% -12.3% 20% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 20 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -10.5%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage491d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $4 $0 -9%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $48 −$6 -12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $62 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $12 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $63 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $83 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $37 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $2 $0 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $42 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $44 −$2 -5%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
New Hampshire vs. Binghamton Mar 04 $8 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $39 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $4 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $48 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $2 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $17 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.12 · official $39.36 (match) · 83 history records