Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5f3…261c crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,075 (+21%) realized +$1,075 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%44W / 5L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
crypto 19% −$38
sports 14% +$1,116
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 -6.5% -15.4% 91% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 46 -6.2% -15.2% 91% 0% -10.4%
all 49 -2.5% -11.8% 90% 2% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% +9.7%
10% -20.2% 2% -0.8%
15% -27.9% 2% -10.4%
20% -35.0% 2% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.53 per $1 lost it wins $25.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1,075
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses44 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage142d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $3,447 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 28? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 25? May 26 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 2AM ET May 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 21? May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 19? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 18? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 18? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Elon Phoenix Feb 02 $684 +$1,116 +163%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27? Jan 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Robert Whittaker be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jan 27 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $14 24h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 24h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,444 2d
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,447 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $13 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $12 17d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.66 · official $51.68 (match) · 100 history records