Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb5f6…f490 sports 31 markets active 5d ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$658 (+3%) realized +$646 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$725per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,299
14 days−$1,256
30 days−$1,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$712
sports 21% −$1,057
other 20% +$1,976
world 17% +$608
crypto 13% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.0% -33.1% 44% 44% -35.5%
≤30d 13 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 46% -33.3%
≤90d 13 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 46% -33.3%
all 28 +2.3% -7.4% 54% 43% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 43% -7.0%
10% -16.3% 36% -15.9%
15% -24.4% 21% -24.0%
20% -31.8% 14% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,286) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$292 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized+$646
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage582d
Avg bet$725
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $500 $383 −$117 (-23%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $200 $376 +$176 (+88%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $200 $153 −$47 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $101 +$61 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,328 −$1,300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $715 +$278 +39%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $206 −$200 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $866 +$263 +30%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $304 +$71 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $509 −$17 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $615 −$333 -54%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $51 −$4 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 +$22 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Biden finish his term? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 05 $100 $0 -0%
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July? Dec 05 $155 −$24 -15%
Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned? Dec 05 $500 −$390 -78%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Dec 05 $500 +$65 +13%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 05 $200 +$591 +296%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Dec 05 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Dec 05 $2,000 −$1,097 -55%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Dec 05 $1,000 +$446 +45%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Dec 05 $1,890 −$124 -6%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 05 $2,700 −$96 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $1,286 +$755 +59%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $2,115 +$1,410 +67%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Nov 16 $1,000 +$286 +29%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Nov 15 $2,000 +$115 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 34¢ $122 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $307 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $512 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $509 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 66¢ $21 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 49¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 51¢ $87 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 28¢ $76 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 55¢ $165 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 46¢ $138 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 41¢ $258 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 37¢ $160 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $511 5d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $1,129 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 68¢ $143 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 68¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 64¢ $182 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $304 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 45¢ $129 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 41¢ $117 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 41¢ $245 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $61 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $911.65 · official $911.65 (match) · 87 history records