Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb5f6…adc3 sports 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,300 (+5%) realized +$5,250 · open −$950
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%44W / 65L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$610per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$327est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$15,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$13
14 days+$1,600
30 days+$2,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,376
other 19% −$3,035
politics 15% +$7,178
crypto 6% +$43
finance 3% +$155
world 2% −$1,122
economics 0% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.3% -20.7% 83% 17% -9.8%
≤30d 10 +61.8% +46.4% 70% 30% +32.9%
≤90d 53 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 30% -0.1%
all 109 +1.3% -8.4% 40% 31% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 31% -2.0%
10% -17.1% 29% -11.4%
15% -25.1% 28% -20.0%
20% -32.5% 28% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$967) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$776 vs −$444 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$15,553
Realized+$5,250
Unrealized−$950
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses44 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$327
Open positions23
Markets (closed)109 / 132
History coverage170d
Avg bet$610
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 90¢ 93¢ $2,815 $2,904 +$89 (+3%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $2,287 $2,314 +$27 (+1%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 80¢ 89¢ $1,600 $1,782 +$182 (+11%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 36¢ $1,390 $1,385 −$5 (-0%)
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 87¢ 85¢ $1,381 $1,349 −$32 (-2%)
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $1,248 $1,222 −$26 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $905 $960 +$54 (+6%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $689 $684 −$5 (-1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 48¢ 18¢ $1,672 $648 −$1,025 (-61%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $606 $625 +$20 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 33¢ 36¢ $330 $360 +$30 (+9%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $267 $240 −$26 (-10%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $194 $213 +$19 (+10%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 69¢ $174 $202 +$28 (+16%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $168 $173 +$5 (+3%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $110 $95 −$15 (-14%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 7¢ $237 $76 −$162 (-68%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $124 $75 −$50 (-40%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+7%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $129 $63 −$65 (-51%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 27¢ 28¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 35¢ 38¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 27 $1,005 +$61 +6%
Will Trump resign before 2027? Jun 27 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $1,158 +$17 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 27 $1,058 +$19 +2%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $289 +$31 +11%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $142 −$142 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $347 −$340 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $240 +$1,760 +733%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $15 −$14 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $380 −$380 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $389 −$380 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry May 26 $646 +$1,402 +217%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Medvedev May 26 $27 +$162 +596%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic May 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $110 +$172 +157%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $1,412 +$87 +6%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $715 −$700 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 19 $1,040 −$1,020 -98%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $352 −$333 -95%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $57 −$53 -93%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $81 −$79 -97%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $321 −$319 -100%
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini May 14 $175 +$261 +149%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $505 −$500 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $754 −$740 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 10 $1,043 +$1,457 +140%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini May 07 $197 +$355 +180%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $1,018 +$1,421 +140%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 01 $34 −$34 -99%
Cagliari: Emilio Nava vs Damir Dzumhur Apr 29 $942 −$925 -98%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $19 −$19 -97%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 28 $1,000 +$1,479 +148%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan Apr 24 $1,150 +$1,310 +114%
BMW Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Luciano Darderi Apr 13 $262 −$262 -100%
Sarasota: Hugo Dellien vs Darwin Blanch Apr 13 $540 +$460 +85%
BMW Open: Justin Engel vs Vit Kopriva Apr 13 $57 −$57 -99%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $370 −$363 -98%
Will Jean-Philippe Veter be the next mayor of Strasbourg? Apr 04 $78 −$78 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Elvina Kalieva vs McCartney Kessler Apr 04 $950 −$950 -100%
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Apr 04 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Colton Smith vs Thiago Agustin Tira Apr 04 $331 −$331 -100%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Zverev Apr 04 $540 −$540 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Apr 04 $216 −$216 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton vs Zhizhen Zhang Apr 04 $700 −$700 -100%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic Apr 04 $1,200 +$2,069 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 85¢ $42 17m
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 85¢ $42 17m
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 90¢ $900 19m
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 90¢ $250 1h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,066 1h
Will Trump resign before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $37 1h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 90¢ $666 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 90¢ $196 1h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,175 1h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 90¢ $985 1h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1,077 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 98¢ $168 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 98¢ $167 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 98¢ $14 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 98¢ $24 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 98¢ $74 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 95¢ $472 2h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $32 2h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $17 3h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 9h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 10h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 20h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 20h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $540 22h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $17 22h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,553.08 · official $15,578.62 (match) · 1031 history records