Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5f6…c41a politics 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 486d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$489 (-64%) realized −$521 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-58.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +85.1% +67.5% 50% 50% -34.1%
≤30d 2 +85.1% +67.5% 50% 50% -34.1%
≤90d 3 +23.4% +11.7% 33% 33% -61.4%
all 8 -53.7% -58.1% 12% 12% -85.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.1% 12% -85.6%
10% -62.1% 12% -87.0%
15% -65.8% 12% -88.3%
20% -69.1% 12% -89.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$80 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$521
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage486d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 43¢ 55¢ $49 $63 +$14 (+29%)
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $3 $21 +$18 (+594%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +200%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $143 −$42 -30%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5m
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 22m
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 54¢ $60 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 2h
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 16h
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 16h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 25h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 25h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 25h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 25h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 37h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 37h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 37h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 41¢ $100 38h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 55¢ $79 39h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 39h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 39h
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 74d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 219d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 230d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 7¢ $45 230d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 230d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 402d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 404d
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 486d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.31 · official $81.04 · 29 history records