Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb5f7…bb62 other 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 131d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$2 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$3
other 24% −$1
world 5% $0
finance 2% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.1% +4.1% 71% 57% -8.3%
≤30d 7 +15.1% +4.1% 71% 57% -8.3%
≤90d 8 +15.6% +4.6% 75% 62% -7.8%
all 9 +13.9% +3.0% 67% 56% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 56% -7.8%
10% -6.8% 33% -16.7%
15% -15.8% 0% -24.7%
20% -24.1% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.06 per $1 lost it wins $6.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage131d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 05 $4 +$1 +19%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 28 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $11 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $57 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $74 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $59 5d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $17 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $17 24d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 24d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 72¢ $1 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 76¢ $2 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 76¢ $2 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 89¢ $2 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 94¢ $2 42d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 108d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 108d
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $2 108d
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $1 136d
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $1 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.94 · official $183.94 (match) · 51 history records