Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5f7…a4f6 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$3
other 20% −$1
politics 8% $0
culture 6% +$5
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 5% -9.4%
all 38 +1.1% -8.5% 34% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 8% -8.8%
10% -17.3% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage307d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $6 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $35 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $55 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $39 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $53 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $41 +$6 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $7 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $35 +$5 +15%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $3 $0 -7%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $37 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $10 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $33 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $38 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $12 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $52 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $52 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $55 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $38 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $60 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.11 · official $49.68 (match) · 267 history records