Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5f8…8e32 weather 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,282 (+2%) realized +$2,270 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate74%386W / 138L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$590
crypto 0% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -37.2% -43.2% 45% 20% -18.7%
≤30d 227 -13.2% -21.5% 64% 21% -10.9%
≤90d 524 -6.2% -15.2% 74% 17% -9.3%
all 524 -6.2% -15.2% 74% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 17% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 9% -18.0%
15% -30.7% 5% -25.9%
20% -37.5% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$32 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$982
Realized+$2,270
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses386 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)524 / 486
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$286
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $513 $517 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $356 $360 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $73 $75 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? No 81¢ 91¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 7? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 15? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$7 -3468%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$77 -134%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 5? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 8? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 2? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 2? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6AM ET Jun 16 $236 −$236 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 6? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Mali end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 10? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 5? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 28? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 26? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2AM ET Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 24? Jun 16 $1 $0 +68%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSG win in regular time against Flamengo? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 3? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6? Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $360 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$6 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $357 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $546 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $89 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $453 +$19 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $513 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $291 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $43 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $121 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $153 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $147 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $114 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $92 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $91 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $37 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $36 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 35¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $13 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 29¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $981.76 · official $973.49 (match) · 3500 history records