Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb5fa…4bc1 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 746d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$352 (-3%) realized +$1,688 · open −$2,040
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%61W / 62L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$3,299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$239
14 days+$193
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1,927
sports 11% +$313
crypto 5% +$1,339
culture 0% −$10
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +59.3% +44.2% 100% 100% +31.1%
≤30d 5 +19.2% +7.8% 80% 60% +11.5%
≤90d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 43% +8.6%
all 123 +1.6% -8.0% 50% 44% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% +28.0%
10% -16.8% 41% +15.8%
15% -24.9% 37% +4.6%
20% -32.2% 33% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$27 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

746d coverage
Net worth$3,299
Realized+$1,688
Unrealized−$2,040
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses61 / 62
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)123 / 131
History coverage746d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,740 $2,488 −$2,251 (-48%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 91¢ $400 $520 +$120 (+30%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $199 $290 +$91 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $430 +$155 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will S Jun 20 $101 +$84 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $71 +$54 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 04 $134 +$1 +1%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp Mar 24 $14 +$9 +66%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 24 $18 −$5 -25%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group Mar 23 $12 +$6 +45%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 151.5 Mar 21 $17 +$7 +44%
OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $5 +$5 +92%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu Mar 21 $15 +$11 +72%
Genoa CFC vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $10 +$5 +51%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $10 +$8 +78%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $17 +$14 +81%
RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $5 +$6 +112%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5) Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Honor of Kings: SOLYX ESPORTS vs FULL SENSE (BO5) - RoV Pro League Gro Mar 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $19 +$2 +10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $7 +$9 +135%
Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon Mar 17 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Mar 16 $5 +$18 +354%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Feb 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Feb 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $35 +$69 +194%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? Jan 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 09 $466 +$84 +18%
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 09 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw Jan 04 $20 +$56 +281%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $60 −$60 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 04 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $585 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will BUY 41¢ $102 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will S BUY 54¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $77 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will BUY $26 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 68¢ $101 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $71 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 42¢ $77 8d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $297 14d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $101 14d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $404 14d
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Denmark 99¢ $64 19d
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Denmark 99¢ $69 19d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 19d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $62 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,276 19d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,603 21d
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $17 88d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $5 89d
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 60¢ $14 90d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $18 90d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group SELL STATE 100¢ $18 90d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group BUY STATE 69¢ $12 90d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY FC Barcelona 62¢ $24 92d
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 151.5 SELL Under 100¢ $24 92d
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 151.5 BUY Under 69¢ $17 92d
OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $15 92d
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,298.52 · official $3,298.52 (match) · 263 history records