Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb5fe…7127 world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$8
sports 32% −$37
other 14% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 8% -11.0%
all 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 8% -11.0%
10% -28.7% 8% -19.5%
15% -35.6% 8% -27.3%
20% -41.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage92d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $407 $407 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 21 $246 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $481 +$3 +1%
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) Jun 09 $474 +$26 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? Jun 04 $470 $0 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 04 $450 +$25 +6%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 02 $461 −$16 -4%
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) Apr 30 $45 −$45 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $68 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) Apr 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $29 −$3 -10%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $19 +$7 +40%
Valorant: Akave Esports Black vs Contra GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers L Mar 29 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $407 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $246 47h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $246 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $484 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $481 12d
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) BUY Guinea 95¢ $474 18d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? SELL No 94¢ $470 18d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $470 19d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Belgium 94¢ $450 20d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $445 20d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $277 20d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $185 20d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $23 53d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $22 53d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $34 53d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $34 53d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $34 53d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $34 53d
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) BUY Al Riyadh Saudi Club $23 54d
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) BUY Al Riyadh Saudi Club $23 54d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 54d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 54d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $15 54d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 54d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 65d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 65d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 65d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 65d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 65d
Valorant: Akave Esports Black vs Contra GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers L BUY Akave Esports Black 93¢ $28 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.38 · official $407.38 (match) · 33 history records