Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5ff…3fcd crypto 977 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,015 (-10%) realized −$15,754 · open −$261
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%380W / 593L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$24,646
finance 1% −$281
other 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -19.8% -27.4% 35% 30% -33.2%
≤30d 391 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 35% -24.1%
≤90d 973 -16.8% -24.7% 39% 34% -25.4%
all 973 -16.8% -24.7% 39% 34% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 34% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 30% -32.5%
15% -38.5% 26% -39.0%
20% -44.6% 19% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$71 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,067
Realized−$15,754
Unrealized−$261
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses380 / 593
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)973 / 977
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 973 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? No 53¢ 40¢ $1,042 $770 −$272 (-26%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? No 64¢ 77¢ $160 $192 +$32 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Down 51¢ 60¢ $76 $89 +$13 (+17%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Up 2¢ 1¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 207 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2,621 −$1,640 -63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $129 −$87 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $15,028 −$2,972 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $319 −$123 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $3,103 −$1,155 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $226 −$210 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $243 −$53 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $211 −$143 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $87 −$75 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $79 +$13 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $81 −$39 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $566 +$33 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $145 −$115 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $631 −$410 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $1,049 −$452 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $159 −$110 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $254 +$63 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,031 +$170 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2,349 −$961 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $85 −$42 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$31 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 11 $429 −$141 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $767 −$228 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $32 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $247 −$89 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $251 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5,129 −$1,157 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $333 −$88 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $514 −$101 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$9 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $181 −$159 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $97 −$75 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $566 −$529 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $516 +$253 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $411 +$205 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $154 +$67 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $486 −$470 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2,829 −$179 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $1,073 +$841 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $311 +$307 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? SELL No 35¢ $7 8m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? SELL No 35¢ $7 8m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? SELL No 35¢ $17 18m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? SELL No 36¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 51¢ $79 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 2¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 0¢ $8 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 0¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 0¢ $17 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $43 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 1¢ $53 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 1¢ $86 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $1,019 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $162 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $54 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $5 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $129 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 15¢ $175 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 25¢ $1,043 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.16 · official $1,067.16 (match) · 3500 history records