Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb602…1ab1 sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$192 (+2%) realized +$976 · open −$784
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 86L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$370
7 days+$55
14 days+$400
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$168
other 6% −$84
crypto 3% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 40% -8.4%
≤30d 141 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 42% -4.6%
≤90d 146 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 41% -5.5%
all 146 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 41% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 41% -5.5%
10% -18.3% 40% -14.5%
15% -26.2% 40% -22.8%
20% -33.4% 37% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$40 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$976
Unrealized−$784
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 86
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions5
Markets (closed)146 / 151
History coverage71d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Bruno Fernandez 70¢ 38¢ $273 $147 −$126 (-46%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $216 $2 −$214 (-99%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $120 $1 −$119 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 60¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 32¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 +$20 +128%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $162 −$8 -5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $36 +$52 +145%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $25 +$16 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 +$113 +93%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 +$81 +158%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $35 +$30 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$29 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $26 +$53 +206%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $253 +$133 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $36 −$35 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $37 +$22 +59%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $17 +$27 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $177 +$81 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $216 +$246 +114%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $96 +$97 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $25 +$29 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $96 −$95 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $96 −$95 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$101 +980%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $122 +$170 +139%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 70¢ $276 9m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $219 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $253 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $51 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $121 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $46 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $35 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $71 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $15 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $155 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $87 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $42 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $36 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 5¢ $5 14h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $25 14h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 11¢ $10 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 17h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 19h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $81 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $66 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $122 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $54 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $78 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 46¢ $25 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.42 · official $150.42 (match) · 242 history records