Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B6 0xb605…d39c sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$97 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$166
sports 25% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-58.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -54.2% -58.6% 33% 22% +2.0%
≤30d 9 -54.2% -58.6% 33% 22% +2.0%
≤90d 9 -54.2% -58.6% 33% 22% +2.0%
all 9 -54.2% -58.6% 33% 22% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.6% 22% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -62.5% 11% -7.7%
15% -66.2% 11% -16.6%
20% -69.5% 0% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$7 · ×10.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 16¢ $0 $102 +$102 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,100 +$190 +17%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$8 -76%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Cocciaretto (+1.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $12 −$12 -93%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $211 +$14 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 9m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 11m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,290 13m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina SELL McCartney Kessler 100¢ $43 21m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 69¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle SELL Zhizhen Zhang 2¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle SELL Zhizhen Zhang 2¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 32¢ $5 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva SELL Tommaso Compagnucci 100¢ $2 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva SELL Tommaso Compagnucci 100¢ $220 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva SELL Maxim Mrva 5¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Zhizhen Zhang 26¢ $10 2h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Tommaso Compagnucci 90¢ $201 2h
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Cocciaretto (+1.5) BUY Tomljanovic 0¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 19¢ $10 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 34¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Zhizhen Zhang 31¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $999 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.60 · official $119.60 (match) · 30 history records