Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb60f…4ea0 crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate73%63W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$4
other 27% −$7
tech 12% $0
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 51% -10.3%
≤30d 86 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 51% -10.3%
≤90d 86 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 51% -10.3%
all 86 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 51% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 51% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 38% -18.9%
15% -25.1% 29% -26.8%
20% -32.5% 19% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses63 / 23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Down 68¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +123%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.34 · official $25.34 (match) · 185 history records