Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb610…2797 other 40 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-25%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%10W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$7
sports 43% −$13
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -16.5% -24.5% 25% 22% -33.7%
≤30d 40 -16.5% -24.5% 25% 22% -33.7%
≤90d 40 -16.5% -24.5% 25% 22% -33.7%
all 40 -16.5% -24.5% 25% 22% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 22% -33.7%
10% -31.7% 20% -40.0%
15% -38.3% 20% -45.8%
20% -44.3% 20% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +142%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -92%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -83%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +123%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -76%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +650%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +171%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +187%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 10¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records