Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb612…b0cf crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$164 (-6%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$571
sports 5% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 41% +9.5%
≤30d 23 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 39% +4.1%
≤90d 23 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 39% +4.1%
all 23 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 39% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 39% +4.1%
10% -25.1% 39% -5.9%
15% -32.3% 30% -15.0%
20% -39.0% 30% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$50 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $145 +$135 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $225 +$77 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $432 +$355 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $970 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $231 +$200 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $99 +$132 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$12 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$98 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $145 −$142 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $225 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $432 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $434 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $542 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $431 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $231 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $231 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $61 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records