Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb615…c6f5 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$9
other 29% −$5
sports 8% −$1
politics 6% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.6% 38% 8% -7.9%
≤90d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 7% -8.0%
all 44 -0.7% -10.1% 27% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage257d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $45 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $77 +$6 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $46 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $36 +$5 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -7%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $7 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $3 $0 -8%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 5m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 5m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $7 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 10h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $10 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $36 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $11 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $29 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $45 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $46 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $46 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $35 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $3 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $34 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $25 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records