Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb615…73cf crypto 1638 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized −$100 · open −$125
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%917W / 708L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$19
14 days−$18
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$113
crypto 43% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.2% -19.7% 62% 12% -10.8%
≤30d 32 -3.6% -12.8% 59% 22% -9.1%
≤90d 1625 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 55% -10.7%
all 1625 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 55% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 55% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 51% -19.3%
15% -28.9% 39% -27.1%
20% -35.8% 29% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$807
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses917 / 708
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1625 / 1638
History coverage51d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1625 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 100¢ $89 $100 +$11 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+101%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $65 $100 +$35 (+54%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $72 $100 +$28 (+39%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $40 $100 +$60 (+149%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $68 $100 +$32 (+46%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 79¢ 97¢ $79 $97 +$18 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 86¢ $36 $86 +$50 (+139%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 24¢ $83 $24 −$59 (-72%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 80¢ $80 $1 −$80 (-99%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 59¢ $59 $1 −$58 (-99%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 39¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-99%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 56¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-99%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 75¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 55¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 69¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 58¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 64¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 62¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $112 +$6 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $18 −$5 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $207 −$65 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $30 −$24 -79%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $92 +$5 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $299 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $379 +$12 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $149 +$47 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $19 −$11 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$2 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $284 −$3 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $51 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$5 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$6 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $23 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $63 +$10 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $16 −$4 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $39 +$7 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $69 +$6 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $77 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $18 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $21 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $36 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $17 +$2 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $16 +$3 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $34 −$9 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $36 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $37 +$3 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 20 $11 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $132 +$11 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 14 $0 $0 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $34 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 09 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 09 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 09 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 09 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 39¢ $39 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 59¢ $59 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $99 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $6 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 54¢ $48 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 71¢ $71 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 47¢ $47 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $44 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 68¢ $68 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 51¢ $51 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $69 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 62¢ $62 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 60¢ $60 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 62¢ $62 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 46¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.45 · official $807.45 (match) · 3500 history records