Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb615…c187
sports · 254 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$800 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$743 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$84
Realized+$743
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses159 / 92
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 254
History coverage601d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 251 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 43¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spurs 65¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $99 −$14 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$15 -48%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $127 +$13 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $87 +$36 +41%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $141 +$72 +51%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $495 −$232 -47%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $350 +$92 +26%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $30 −$10 -34%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $309 −$40 -13%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $344 +$47 +14%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Francesco Maestrel Apr 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Moise Kouame Apr 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $20 +$5 +27%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $40 +$5 +13%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $299 +$17 +6%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $70 +$21 +30%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $60 +$18 +31%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $238 +$22 +9%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $229 +$9 +4%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur Apr 19 $10 +$5 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $216 +$9 +4%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $133 +$84 +63%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $102 +$30 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $137 +$12 +9%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $81 +$11 +13%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $9 −$1 -7%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $72 −$31 -43%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 15 $5 $0 -2%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 13 $62 +$3 +4%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $140 +$23 +16%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Barcelona Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 13 $400 +$89 +22%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 13 $375 +$39 +10%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Recrent vs Team Lixxx (BO3) - Winline Star Series Apr 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$564
other 10% +$54
crypto 9% +$115
politics 1% +$10
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $85 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $85 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 11¢ $43 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 86¢ $82 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $58 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 69¢ $58 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $69 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 26¢ $54 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $87 3d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $7 34d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 92¢ $143 53d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 44¢ $69 53d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Rockets 66¢ $70 53d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 67¢ $72 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs SELL Trail Blazers 99¢ $172 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 95¢ $165 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 23¢ $85 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $20 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 93¢ $100 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 86¢ $200 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs SELL Trail Blazers 15¢ $6 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 23¢ $10 53d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 100¢ $406 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 33% -10.4%
≤30d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 33% -10.4%
≤90d 88 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 49% -6.9%
all 251 -2.2% -11.5% 63% 51% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 51% -3.3%
10% -19.9% 36% -12.5%
15% -27.7% 20% -21.0%
20% -34.8% 11% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.46 · official $84.46 (match) · 637 history records