Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb616…3338 crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$228 (-9%) realized −$227 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$99
14 days−$43
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$99
politics 17% −$20
crypto 10% −$97
sports 10% +$18
culture 6% +$138
weather 3% −$32
world 2% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.3% -24.2% 20% 20% -26.8%
≤30d 22 -6.8% -15.7% 23% 23% -31.8%
≤90d 73 -27.1% -34.0% 27% 25% -46.4%
all 81 -16.3% -24.2% 31% 28% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 28% -14.5%
10% -31.5% 25% -22.7%
15% -38.1% 23% -30.2%
20% -44.2% 22% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$20 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage143d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$41 +46%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $154 −$60 -39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$43 +836%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$50 +246%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Apr 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 13? Apr 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $30 +$29 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13? Apr 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 13? Apr 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 09 $62 −$4 -6%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 01 $40 +$31 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 01 $70 −$66 -95%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 01 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 12m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $75 12m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $68 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $94 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $24 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 27h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 30h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.62 · official $28.62 (match) · 145 history records