Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb617…ea50 sports 431 markets active 3h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-1%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%283W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$22
14 days−$82
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$239
other 15% −$14
politics 7% +$138
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -10.4% -18.9% 69% 29% -11.8%
≤30d 283 -9.5% -18.1% 68% 28% -13.1%
≤90d 399 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 29% -10.7%
all 427 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 29% -10.2%
10% -25.6% 13% -18.8%
15% -32.8% 7% -26.7%
20% -39.4% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses283 / 144
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)427 / 431
History coverage368d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 427 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $49 +$2 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 $0 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 $0 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $62 −$8 -13%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea Jun 25 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $1 +$1 +138%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $1 $0 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $59 +$1 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -22%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 $0 -15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 +$3 +39%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $9 $0 -5%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $55 +$2 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $4 +$3 +65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $1 $0 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $5 −$2 -43%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $7 +$1 +11%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +19%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $48 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -31%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $7 $0 -5%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $1 $0 -37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $57 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 98¢ $56 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $51 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $49 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- SELL 1¢ $0 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 53¢ $1 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $4 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 7h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $54 23h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $54 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $22 25h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 60¢ $8 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 44¢ $1 26h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea BUY 58¢ $1 26h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 86¢ $2 27h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 36¢ $1 27h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 34¢ $1 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1563 history records