Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb619…5068
other · 141 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$16,674 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,508 · open +$4,203
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$233,075
Realized+$13,508
Unrealized+$4,203
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses46 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$782
Open positions110
Markets (closed)85 / 141
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2,735
Trades / day153.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 110 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,026
7 days−$7,095
14 days+$22,279
30 days+$13,508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16,790 $16,340 −$450 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15,299 $13,387 −$1,912 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,999 $12,845 +$2,846 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9,515 $10,862 +$1,347 (+14%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 34¢ 45¢ $8,093 $10,846 +$2,752 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11,019 $10,236 −$783 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 89¢ $9,314 $8,935 −$379 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8,759 $8,564 −$195 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,350 $8,450 −$900 (-10%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 48¢ $8,191 $7,762 −$429 (-5%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 61¢ 56¢ $8,177 $7,438 −$739 (-9%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $7,467 $7,437 −$30 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 82¢ $4,540 $6,041 +$1,501 (+33%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $6,108 $6,004 −$104 (-2%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $5,553 $5,584 +$31 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $5,562 $5,531 −$31 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $5,556 $5,508 −$48 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 42¢ 85¢ $2,616 $5,344 +$2,728 (+104%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 87¢ $5,634 $5,130 −$504 (-9%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $4,550 $4,700 +$150 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $4,150 $4,225 +$75 (+2%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 92¢ $3,594 $3,793 +$199 (+6%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $3,789 $3,730 −$59 (-2%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $3,420 $3,476 +$57 (+2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3,500 $3,474 −$25 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 12 $3,527 −$3,527 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 +$970 +1175630%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,100 +$2,900 +138%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,650 −$1,645 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,514 +$486 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $21,615 +$2,497 +12%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $18 +$11 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $207 +$38 +18%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,405 +$95 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $2,250 +$250 +11%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2,601 −$2,600 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2,039 +$1,359 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $400 +$4,600 +1150%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $3,101 +$1,899 +61%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,296 +$2,782 +121%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $3,568 +$1,807 +51%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $1,532 +$1,676 +110%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $678 +$1,264 +186%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $1,943 −$1,930 -99%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $4,556 +$444 +10%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2,700 +$2,300 +85%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $278 +$53 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $297 −$297 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $948 −$940 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $2,653 −$2,650 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 01 $9 −$9 -98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2,655 +$2,345 +88%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 01 $3,450 +$1,550 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $348 +$57 +16%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2,604 +$2,395 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21,211 +$5,832 +28%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 01 $577 −$574 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $521 +$256 +49%
Will AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié end in a draw? May 31 $1,057 +$433 +41%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $763 −$759 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$979 +4756%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18,601 +$18 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $217 +$80 +37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15,493 +$7,062 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2,951 −$2,951 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $2,587 −$2,587 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5 May 29 $760 −$760 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? May 29 $342 −$340 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% +$5,527
world 20% +$12,275
sports 12% −$701
finance 1% +$2,851
crypto 1% +$420
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $122 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.7% -33.7% 54% 46% -24.9%
≤30d 85 +72.6% +56.1% 54% 49% -6.1%
≤90d 85 +72.6% +56.1% 54% 49% -6.1%
all 85 +72.6% +56.1% 54% 49% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover153.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.1% 49% -6.1%
10% +41.2% 41% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here +27.6% 40% -23.3%
20% +15.1% 33% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233,074.74 · official $233,082.49 (match) · 3500 history records