Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb61c…5e2e other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$13
politics 31% −$11
sports 13% −$65
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -5.4% -14.4% 10% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -22.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage119d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 19 $163 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $152 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $365 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $340 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $307 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $364 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $317 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $179 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $396 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $145 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $158 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $346 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $374 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $346 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $192 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $148 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $349 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $382 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $193 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $151 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $151 29d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $163 32d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $163 43d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $152 43d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $152 44d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 44d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 45d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $147 46d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $147 46d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $152 46d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $152 47d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $165 47d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 47d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 47d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 48d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $156 48d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $156 48d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 48d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 48d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 48d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $201 49d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $157 49d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $157 49d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $183 49d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $183 49d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $175 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.99 · official $29.99 (match) · 370 history records